Safer Alternatives to Cigarettes Could Save 19 Million Years of Life and Billions of Pounds by 2030

According to new calculations by the Adam Smith Institute, a leading think tank, promoting safer alternatives to cigarettes could save 19 million years of life by 2030, and up to £12.6 billion every year;

• The Government’s current plans to eradicate smoking are illiberal, unworkable and will significantly set back progress against smoking related harm, according to a new paper from the ASI;

• It has committed to achieving ‘Smoke Free 2030’ meaning that, by 2030, only 5% or fewer of adults in England smoke cigarettes;

• But there is no international evidence to show that a generational tobacco ban would work whilst outright bans in other countries have failed;

• A new tax on vapes, the banning of disposable vapes, the inclusion of heated tobacco products in the generational ban, and punitive marketing and flavour restrictions will also stall harm reduction, as it reinforces the mistaken belief that these products are less safe and reduces the ability of smokers to find a quitting aid which works for them;

• The Government should learn from the UK’s previous success in reducing its smoking rate, and from Sweden, which has become Smoke Free because of its embrace of products such as Snus, tobacco harm reduction products are affordable, and their government is clear that these products are less harmful than cigarettes;

• The ASI is proposing a number of policies that would use the power of the free market to reduce smoking related harms, whilst giving smokers who want to quit more choice, which include repealing the generational ban, scrapping the vape tax and ban on disposable vapes, broadening the Swap to Stop scheme and legalising Swedish snus.

The UK’s progress in reducing smoking rates has been one of the great public health successes of the past decade. Due to a combination of market innovation and pragmatic public health policy, millions of smokers have been empowered to take up safer Tobacco Harm Reduction Products (THR), such as vapes, heated tobacco products, and nicotine pouches. For example, as vaping rates increased from 1.7% in 2012 to 7.1% in 2021, smoking rates plummeted from 20% to 14.7% over the same period. 

However, the illiberal measures proposed in the Tobacco and Vapes Bill 2024, alongside related legislation banning disposable vapes, risks jeopardising this progress. Punitive restrictions on THR products perpetuate the harmful misconception that they are as dangerous as cigarettes. Evidence suggests that 29% of disposable e-cigarette users could revert back to smoking if they are banned. Similarly, proposals for a generational ban are deeply flawed. Even if it worked, the UK would fall over a decade short of its Smoke-Free 2030 target. Meanwhile, experience from Australia and South Africa shows that prohibition fuels dangerous black markets. 

To achieve a Smoke Free 2030, the UK must follow Sweden’s lead, where smoking rates have fallen to just 4.5%, empowering consumers to choose between a variety of risk-reduced products. In policy terms, this means:

• Scrapping the Generational Smoking ban or at the very least carve out Type 1 heated tobacco products;

• Reversing the ban on disposable e-cigarettes to prevent current users reverting to smoking;

• Scrapping the vape tax, as this is likely to deter the uptake of refillable e-cigarettes as a long-term quitting aid;

• Expanding access to THR products via pharmacies, hospitals and hospitality venue;

• Legalising Swedish snus to provide consumers with a greater choice of reduced risk products;

• Removing punitive restrictions on the marketing of reduced risk products and, instead, ensuring that advertising standards are properly enforced so as to not attract under-aged users;

• Undertaking a wider public health campaign to counter disinformation surrounding reduced risk products, encouraging more smokers to make the switch.

If the UK adopted the harm reduction policies outlined in this paper, it could save 19 million years of life and, using methodology from the Action on Smoking and Health (ASH), reduce the burden on taxpayers by up to £12.6bn a year. If politicians are genuinely serious about saving lives, they should opt for an evidence-based harm reduction approach that relies on innovation rather than prohibition.

Maxwell Marlow, Director of Research at the Adam Smith Institute and report co-author, said:

“Smoke Free 2030 will not be achieved by rolling back our personal freedoms. The path to a healthier Britain lies in embracing harm reduction initiatives like the Swap to Stop scheme and allowing the market to provide consumers with a variety of safer alternatives.”

The evidence is overwhelming -  tobacco harm reduction (THR) products reduce smoking-rates and save lives. Alongside scrapping the generational ban, the government must urgently reconsider its punitive restrictions on harm reduction products.”

Commenting on the ASIs report, Rupert Lowe MP, Reform UK Member of Parliament for Great Yarmouth, said: 

“This is a step towards government control over your personal freedoms. It may start with smoking but it certainly will not stop there.  

“This decision must weigh the importance of personal freedoms against health concerns. It is not a decision to be made lightly.”

Greg Smith MP, Conservative Member of Parliament for Mid Buckinghamshire, said:

“The Tobacco and Vapes Bill in its current form is putting a huge opportunity to save lives at risk. The illiberalism of the generational smoking ban aside, there is no evidence to suggest it would even work.”

Mary Glindon MP, Labour Member of Parliament for Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend, said:

“The Government is right to strengthen its commitment to a Smoke-Free 2030 and by adopting a harm reduction strategy we could save 19 million years of life while reducing the burden smoking-related harms place on the NHS.”

-ENDS-

Notes to editors:  

Methodology

In this paper, we have calculated that, if Smoke Free 2030 was achieved, we could save 19 million years of life in the UK. This figure reflects the cumulative increase in life expectancy for all smokers, adding up to 19 million years across the entire population. Research by Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) shows that smoking costs the UK taxpayer £21.8 billion annually. Based on ASH’s methodology, implementing the strategy outlined in this paper could reduce this cost by between £9.2 billion and £12.6 billion.

Maxwell Marlow is Director of Research at the Adam Smith Institute.

Mark Oates is a Fellow at the Adam Smith Institute, and the Director of WeVape and Snus Users Association.

For further comments or to arrange an interview, contact press@adamsmith.org | 0758 477 8207

The Adam Smith Institute is one of the world’s leading think tanks. It is ranked first in the world among independent think tanks and as the best domestic and international economic policy think tank in the UK by the University of Pennsylvania. Independent, non-profit and non-partisan, the Institute is at the forefront of making the case for free markets and a free society, through education, research, publishing, and media outreach.