Why the Generational Ban isn’t necessary.

Written By Maxwell Marlow

It has taken 586 days between the Tobacco and Vapes Bill first landing in the House of Commons and the Committee Stage in the House of Lords. Even in its shiny new format, concerns continue to be aired from nanny state lobbyists (such as ASH) about the delay in passing this incredibly draconian legislation. Many have asked why - is it because of political perceptions around fun and personal freedoms? Or because of the trouble with Northern Ireland and the Windsor Framework? Perhaps it could be from the red flags being hoisted by those who will have the enforce the rules? Regardless of the Bill’s numerous pitfalls, there remains a stand-out foible with this ‘internationally leading’ policy. It fails at its primary mission to create a smoke-free generation. ‘Create’ is the operative word here. For Generation Alpha, who are the first generation to be affected by the 1 January 2009-onwards ban, statistical forecasting shows that they will already be off the cigarettes by the time the law comes into force, as will be the case across much of the Western World.

Without the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, and the Generational Smoking Ban, smoking amongst young people will already reach ‘Smoke-Free’ by the time the Ban comes into force - 2027. In this Deep Dive, we will look at the numbers, trends, and forecasts around smoking, and why the emphasis on regulation should be about getting more smokers onto safer alternatives, rather than trying to ‘stop the start’ of an already flagging habit.

The Extant Smokers problem

Using the ONS’ data, we can see that smoking is already unpopular amongst young people. As the chart above demonstrates, smoking prevalence has fallen by 16 percentage points year on year since 2011, resulting in the habit being deemed rare amongst younger cohorts. This is likely due to the rising cost of tobacco (the average price of a packet of cigarettes is around £15), a change in behavioural norms surrounding drinking, drug use, and smoking, and the arrival of other nicotine products (vapes) on the market which are deemed more consumer friendly.

Whilst younger people choosing to vape should be discouraged, it is true that vaping has proved to be more popular in this cohort than in previous groups. The latest data from ASH indicates that 4.2% of 11-17 year olds only vape, whilst 2.6% only smoke, and 2.8% doing both. A 2022 cross-sectional survey also showed that there was no proof that vaping was acting as a gateway to tobacco usage - vaping has thus displaced tobacco usage. Alongside significant socio-cultural behavioural patterns shifting away from these behaviours, the advent of safer nicotine products (even if they are illegal to purchase for minors and should still be discouraged) is driving smoking down below the ‘smoke-free’ mark. We should note, however, ASH data excludes the answers of participants who did not want to declare whether or not they vape or smoke, so it is impossible to know whether there is a burgeoning nicotine taste in this cohort.

In a world where the only consumption of nicotine is between smoking and vaping, scientists (and even some smokers) will tell us that vaping should be the preference. Vaping is at least 95% than smoking, and with the author being a former smoker, better products have delivered real change by knocking out the path dependency of smokers continuing to smoke more harmful products. Of course, a world where there is only two options in nicotine consumption and no abstention is hypothetical, but it is a useful test against the proponents of the anti-nicotine lobby - people will look to consume nicotine through tobacco or through newer products, sadly even at a young age, so if they are to do so, it is better to welcome in the ‘better of two evils’ instead of also bricking up the wall of a potential exit to the harms of smoking.

Path dependency is important, and will be discussed below, when analysing data on addictive products. Users who have started using nicotine products are much more likely to use them in the future than those who have not - this seems tautologous, but is highlighted in the data above. Older cohorts are more likely to smoke now as smoking was much more prevalent in the 1970s than in the 2010s. This explains why those older than 65 have a much slower change in their prevalence rate than any adult. Visa-versa, in an age when using these products is looked down upon, it is much less likely for a non-smoker now to be a smoker in the future, if the trends continue as we expect them to.

Getting to ‘Smoke Free status’ by 2030, where 5% of the population or less smokes tobacco, has been the official position of the British government since 2019. Dr Javed Khan’s Review into smoking in the UK set out a number of reforms to achieve ‘Smoke Free’ status as soon as possible, however he noted that it is unlikely to be achieved across the UK until 2044 - 14 years after the announced target. Khan’s review urged the government to officially back vaping, however additional regulations and restrictions on vaping (paired with waves of critical headlines in the media) have shifted the public’s views on vapes.

However, according to current trends with official smoking statistics, the 18-24 age-range are on track to become ‘Smoke Free’ as soon as 2027, without the need for the expensive and illiberal implementation of a Generational Smoking Ban. It is understandable to see why public health officials are pushing for the ban - the argument on safer alternatives has been lost. The failure to more strongly condemn often misleading headlines and liberate the nicotine sector to effectively (and responsibly) market their innovative products, have contributed to wider scepticism on the safer option that alternative products provide when compared to cigarettes. Lower uptake means that current, older smokers are less incentivised to quit, and even if tobacco taxes increase, the growing black market will provide cheaper cigarettes.

Without market friendly deregulations, it is likely that the government’s approach towards Smoke Free will fail to achieve its aims. It is clear from the data and actions of the government in regulating this space that they are relying on older smokers to die and younger smokers to ‘hopefully’ avoid taking up smoking at all. This is demonstrated in the repeated increases in funding for state-controlled services and expansions to the health-service, which pales in comparison to the clear power offered by market innovations (nicotine pouches, vapes, and heated tobacco) and their unique effectiveness in reducing the number of smokers. The banning of disposable vapes, for example, is forecast to cause 29% of current vapers back onto smoking cigarettes - market-based innovations away from government meddling clearly provide the answer to concerned public health officials, if they can stomach it.

Path Dependency

As highlighted in the above graph, the most significant forecast declines in smoking rates happens at a younger age, whereas older smokers, who may not be as aware of the benefits of switching to alternatives, remain committed to tobacco. Whilst this may be down to their free choice to maintain smoking cigarettes, we know that the majority (60% according to NICE) of smokers wish to quit.

NHS offerings are available and effective when utilised, but expensive for taxpayers and are administratively more complex to deploy and maintain - it also relies upon the sentiments of politicians and can struggle to reach more deprived areas (see below for pre-Ban forecasts on smoking rates by region). For private sector organisations in the nicotine space, large amounts of marketing and product development go into targeting extant smokers, at no cost to taxpayers and with higher efficacy rates. Permitting companies in the nicotine space to compete with government services would make significant steps in achieving reductions in smoking rates. However, it is well known that there is an antipathy with policy makers towards extant tobacco companies who are looking to shift towards harm-reduction products, whether in the form of pouches, vapes, or heated tobacco.