Self-government within the union

The surprise and convincing win by Plaid Cymru in the Caerphilly Senedd by-election has set political analysts wondering if it forebodes the break-up of the United Kingdom. With Plaid significant in Wales, the SNP in Scotland, and Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland, the non-English nations of the UK seem to favour striking out on their own.

Yes, there is a strong case for saying that in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, significant numbers of people prefer nationalist-led devolved government but not independence from the UK. 

The Scottish National Party (SNP) dominates Scottish politics and has done since 2007, consistently winning Scottish Parliament elections. However, support for independence hovers around 45–50%, rarely achieving a stable majority. This means that a large share of SNP voters do not necessarily support independence. Surveys, such as that by the Scottish Election Study,show that some vote SNP for competence, social-democratic policies, or to stand up for Scotland within the UK, not to leave it.

Many Scots support devolution and the idea of a distinct Scottish voice in governance, but prefer remaining part of the UK with strong home rule. Few foresaw that the No vote in the 2014 referendum on independence would clear the way for huge SNP gains in the Scottish Assembly. This indicates that a majority want local control and protection of Scottish interests, but do not necessarily want full independence.

Plaid Cymru is the nationalist party in Wales, though independence support is much lower than in Scotland, typically about 25–30%. Yet, support for more devolved powers, on justice, policing, and energy, for example, is high, often 60% or more.

Some Plaid voters view the party as the best advocate for Welsh culture, language, and identity, within the UK framework. This suggests that many Welsh voters back nationalist parties to strengthen devolution and promote Welsh identity, not to break away.

The situation is more complex in Northern Ireland because nationalism there is tied to Irish unity rather than a separate national state. The Sinn Féin and SDLP vote represents those favouring Irish nationalism, but polls show many voters prioritize good governance, cost of living, and stability over constitutional change. A growing group of voters, particularly the young and ‘neither unionist nor nationalist’ middle ground, support parties like Alliance, showing that day-to-day governance can outweigh constitutional identity. So while nationalist parties win substantial votes, that doesn’t necessarily translate into immediate demand for unification.

Some English voters express frustration that the other nations have devolved governments, which fuels debates about English devolution or an English assembly.

The overall pattern seems that across the UK, devolution and localism are popular. Many citizens want decisions made closer to home, and trust nationalist or regional parties to represent their community’s interests, while valuing the economic and political stability of remaining in the UK. 

So there is a coherent and evidence-based case that a significant proportion of people in the UK’s non-English nations support nationalist-led devolved governance but not independence. They want self-government within the Union, not separation from it.

 Madsen Pirie